Are CS2 cases worth opening? What the numbers say
The official CS2 case odds, what one opening really costs, what it returns on average and why a knife takes hundreds of cases. Real numbers from November 2026.
Short answer: no, not if you want to make money. We worked out the expected value of all 42 CS2 weapon cases, and not one of them returns, on average, what you paid. If you open them for the thrill and know the cost up front, that is a choice like any other. Here are the numbers so you can decide for yourself.
What a case really costs
The case itself is often cheap: new ones like Kilowatt or Revolution sell for pennies on the market. The problem is the key. Every case needs its own key, and Valve sells it in-game for $2.49. Since 2019, bought keys cannot be resold, so the money spent on a key is gone for good.
So one opening costs case price + $2.49. For the cheapest cases in November 2026 that comes to about €2.40. For old cases like the CS:GO Weapon Case or Operation Bravo, the case alone costs tens of euros.
The official odds
Valve published the odds for each rarity, and they are the same for every weapon case:
| Rarity | Chance | Roughly |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 4 in 5 cases |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156 |
| Knife or gloves | 0.26% | 1 in 385 |
On top of that come two more dice rolls. Any weapon or knife has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™. And the wear is random: only about 3% of drops are Factory New, most come out Field-Tested.
What expected value means
Expected value (EV) is the average of what you get from a case if you opened a very large number of them. We work it out like this: take every possible skin, in every wear, normal and StatTrak, multiply it by its chance and by today’s price, and add it all up.
If the EV is €1 and the case plus key costs €2.40, every opening loses you €1.40 on average. Some people win, most lose, and over time the average is what counts.
What cases return today
At November 2026 prices, CS2 cases return between 26% and 73% of what an opening costs. The median case returns 49%: put in €10, get back about €4.90 in skins on average.
A few things stand out:
- New cases are the worst. Kilowatt, Revolution, Fracture and Clutch return only 25–30%. The case is cheap, but you pay $2.49 for a key to get skins worth a few cents.
- The old CS:GO Weapon Case series returns more, because its skins are rare now. But those cases cost far more, so you lose more money per opening even though the percentage looks better.
- The chance to unbox more than you paid is usually between 3% and 10%. In other words, 9 times out of 10 the skin is worth less than the case and key.
All the numbers, updated daily, are on our CS2 cases page, with a separate page for every case.
How many cases for a knife
At 0.26%, you need 385 cases on average for a knife or a pair of gloves. “On average” means some people hit one on case 20, and others haven’t after 1,000.
On the Kilowatt Case, 385 openings cost about €925. A Kukri from Kilowatt is worth around €62 on average today. If you want a specific knife, buying it outright is almost always cheaper. You can browse every CS2 knife with prices for each wear.
Why people always seem to win
On YouTube and Twitch you mostly see the good openings. Nobody uploads 200 Mil-Specs in a row. Some sites also give creators play money or better odds so it looks good on stream. What you see on screen is not the average.
When opening cases makes sense
- For fun, on a fixed budget. Decide up front on an amount you are happy to lose completely, and stop when it is spent.
- When the case is free. Cases from the weekly drop cost you nothing; only the key does if you want to open them. You can also sell them on the market instead.
- When you want a specific collection and enjoy the opening itself, not the result.
If you want a particular skin, buy it. On SkinRave prices are usually below Steam, and every skin page on our site shows the difference.
Case opening sites work the same way
Case opening sites have their own cases with their own odds. The serious ones are provably fair: after each opening you can check that the result was not changed. That does not give you an edge: there too the expected value is below the price, and the gap is the site’s margin. We compared the best known ones in our guide to case opening sites.
Play responsibly
Opening cases is gambling and is for adults 18+ only. If you feel you can’t stop, find yourself chasing losses or playing with money you need, take a break and talk to someone you trust.