CS2 cases
For every case we work out what one opening costs (case plus key) and what it returns on average, using Valve's published odds and today's prices. On average a case returns 47% of the money.
CS:GO Weapon Case 3cost €11.74, returns €8.5873%2
eSports 2013 Winter Casecost €11.24, returns €7.9571%3
Glove Casecost €9.25, returns €6.3869%| Case | Released | Cost per opening | Expected value | Returned | Rare pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fever Case | 2025 | €2.73 | €0.91 | 33% | Survival Knife, Skeleton Knife, +2 |
 Gallery Case | 2024 | €2.75 | €1.19 | 43% | Kukri Knife |
 Kilowatt Case | 2024 | €2.40 | €0.62 | 26% | Kukri Knife |
 Revolution Case | 2023 | €2.44 | €0.66 | 27% | Gloves |
 Recoil Case | 2022 | €2.43 | €0.76 | 31% | Gloves |
 Dreams & Nightmares Case | 2021 | €2.95 | €1.09 | 37% | Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, +3 |
 Operation Riptide Case | 2021 | €7.22 | €3.69 | 51% | Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, +3 |
 Snakebite Case | 2021 | €2.50 | €1.04 | 42% | Gloves |
 Operation Broken Fang Case | 2020 | €6.09 | €3.03 | 50% | Gloves |
 Fracture Case | 2020 | €2.53 | €0.72 | 28% | Nomad Knife, Paracord Knife, +2 |
 Prisma 2 Case | 2020 | €2.96 | €1.59 | 54% | Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, +2 |
 CS20 Case | 2019 | €2.80 | €1.18 | 42% | Classic Knife |
 Shattered Web Case | 2019 | €5.24 | €2.56 | 49% | Nomad Knife, Paracord Knife, +2 |
 Prisma Case | 2019 | €2.98 | €1.70 | 57% | Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, +2 |
 Danger Zone Case | 2018 | €2.98 | €1.28 | 43% | Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, +2 |
 Horizon Case | 2018 | €3.27 | €1.65 | 50% | Navaja Knife, Stiletto Knife, +2 |
 Clutch Case | 2017 | €2.58 | €0.78 | 30% | Gloves |
 Spectrum 2 Case | 2017 | €4.37 | €1.87 | 43% | Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, +3 |
 Operation Hydra Case | 2017 | €22.91 | €14.20 | 62% | Gloves |
 Spectrum Case | 2017 | €4.72 | €2.21 | 47% | Bowie Knife, Butterfly Knife, +3 |
 Glove Case | 2016 | €9.25 | €6.38 | 69% | Gloves |
 Gamma 2 Case | 2016 | €4.38 | €2.23 | 51% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Gamma Case | 2016 | €4.33 | €2.40 | 55% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Chroma 3 Case | 2016 | €4.65 | €2.17 | 47% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Operation Wildfire Case | 2016 | €4.18 | €2.45 | 59% | Bowie Knife |
 Shadow Case | 2015 | €3.43 | €1.75 | 51% | Shadow Daggers |
 Chroma 2 Case | 2015 | €4.98 | €2.40 | 48% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Falchion Case | 2015 | €3.38 | €1.61 | 48% | Falchion Knife |
 Chroma Case | 2015 | €5.74 | €2.80 | 49% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Revolver Case | 2015 | €4.21 | €2.19 | 52% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | 2014 | €4.90 | €2.41 | 49% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 2014 | €5.45 | €3.53 | 65% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 eSports 2013 Case | 2014 | €35.75 | €11.35 | 32% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 eSports 2013 Winter Case | 2014 | €11.24 | €7.95 | 71% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 eSports 2014 Summer Case | 2014 | €10.44 | €5.85 | 56% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Operation Breakout Weapon Case | 2014 | €8.06 | €3.78 | 47% | Butterfly Knife |
 Huntsman Weapon Case | 2014 | €7.95 | €4.10 | 52% | Huntsman Knife |
 Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 2013 | €9.38 | €4.80 | 51% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 CS:GO Weapon Case | 2013 | €84.24 | €27.59 | 33% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 Operation Bravo Case | 2013 | €49.48 | €14.11 | 29% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 2013 | €16.45 | €10.33 | 63% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 2013 | €11.74 | €8.58 | 73% | Bayonet, Flip Knife, +3 |
Prices from 12 November 2026. Values use the lowest market price; if you sell what you unbox, you get less. Cheapest opening: Kilowatt Case, €2.40.
How we work out a case's value
We start from the odds Valve published for each rarity. Within a rarity every skin is equally likely, and the wear (Factory New, Minimal Wear and so on) follows the random float: about 3% Factory New, 24% Minimal Wear, 33% Field-Tested, 24% Well-Worn and 16% Battle-Scarred, fitted to each skin's float range. One drop in ten is StatTrak™. Every possible result is multiplied by its chance and by the lowest market price, and the sum is the expected value. The cost is the case price plus the key ($2.49 in the in-game store).
The result is an average over a very large number of openings. On a single case you can win or lose a lot, but over time every case returns less than it costs. Only open them for fun. Read the full guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the drop odds in CS2 cases?
Valve published the same odds for every weapon case: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a knife or gloves 0.26% (about one in 385 cases). Any weapon or knife has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™.
What is expected value?
The average of what you get from a case if you opened a very large number of them: every possible skin times its chance times today's price. If it is below the cost, you lose money in the long run.
Which case is best to open?
At today's prices the CS:GO Weapon Case 3 returns the most (73% of the cost on average). Still, no case returns more than it costs.