Recoil Case

Released on 30 May 2022. Contains 17 weapon skins and a rare pool with gloves.

Case: €0.18
Key: €2.25
Cost per opening: €2.43

Expected value€0.7631% of the cost back, on average

Chance of profit4.2%to unbox something worth more than the cost

Average loss€1.67per opening

Buy the case on SkinRavefair prices, fast trades View on Steam

Odds and value by rarity

prices from 12 November 2026

Rarity	Chance	One in	Items	Average value	Share of the value
Knife or gloves	0.26%	385	24	€109.27	37%
Covert	0.64%	156	2	€32.33	27%
Classified	3.20%	31	3	€4.00	17%
Restricted	15.98%	6.26	5	€0.47	10%
Mil-Spec	79.92%	1.25	7	€0.09	9%

Odds are the ones Valve published and are the same for every weapon case. Within a rarity every skin is equally likely; the wear comes from the random float (about 3% Factory New, 24% Minimal Wear, 33% Field-Tested, 24% Well-Worn, 16% Battle-Scarred, fitted to each skin's float range); 10% of weapons and knives are StatTrak™. Values use the lowest market price for each wear. For the cost, the key costs €2.25 in the in-game store ($2.49).

Most valuable drops

What's inside the Recoil Case

Is the Recoil Case worth opening?

One opening costs €2.43 (€0.18 for the case and €2.25 for the key) and returns €0.76 on average. That means you get back about 31% of your money and lose about €1.67 on every case. On value for money, the Recoil Case ranks 37 of 42 cases.

Most of the value sits in the rare drops: 37% of the expected value comes from the gloves, which drop once every 385 cases, and 27% from the Covert skins. Almost 80% of openings give you a Mil-Spec skin worth about €0.09.

The value uses buy prices. If you sell what you unbox you get less: Steam keeps 15% of the price and the money stays in your Steam Wallet. If you want a particular skin, buy it directly; it is almost always cheaper than trying to unbox it.

Opening cases is gambling. Only open them for fun, and only with money you can afford to lose. Guide: are CS2 cases worth opening?

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of a knife from the Recoil Case?

0.26%, or one in 385 cases on average. Every opening is independent: there is no counter that raises your odds after many openings. At today's prices, 385 openings cost about €935.

Which knives or gloves are in the Recoil Case?

gloves, across 24 finishes. Every finish is equally likely.

Is the Recoil Case worth opening?

Financially, no: one opening costs €2.43 and returns €0.76 on average, so you lose about €1.67 each time. If you want a particular skin, buying it directly is almost always cheaper.

What are the StatTrak™ odds?

Any weapon skin or knife from the case has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™. Gloves have no StatTrak™ version.