Shadow Case

Released on 15 September 2015. Contains 16 weapon skins and a rare pool with Shadow Daggers.

Case: €1.18
Key: €2.25
Cost per opening: €3.43

Expected value€1.7551% of the cost back, on average

Chance of profit8.0%to unbox something worth more than the cost

Average loss€1.68per opening

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Odds and value by rarity

prices from 12 November 2026

Rarity	Chance	One in	Items	Average value	Share of the value
Knife or gloves	0.26%	385	13	€58.93	9%
Covert	0.64%	156	2	€62.98	23%
Classified	3.20%	31	3	€14.14	26%
Restricted	15.98%	6.26	4	€2.07	19%
Mil-Spec	79.92%	1.25	7	€0.51	23%

Odds are the ones Valve published and are the same for every weapon case. Within a rarity every skin is equally likely; the wear comes from the random float (about 3% Factory New, 24% Minimal Wear, 33% Field-Tested, 24% Well-Worn, 16% Battle-Scarred, fitted to each skin's float range); 10% of weapons and knives are StatTrak™. Values use the lowest market price for each wear. For the cost, the key costs €2.25 in the in-game store ($2.49).

Most valuable drops

What's inside the Shadow Case

Is the Shadow Case worth opening?

One opening costs €3.43 (€1.18 for the case and €2.25 for the key) and returns €1.75 on average. That means you get back about 51% of your money and lose about €1.68 on every case. On value for money, the Shadow Case ranks 16 of 42 cases.

Most of the value sits in the rare drops: 9% of the expected value comes from the Shadow Daggers, which drop once every 385 cases, and 23% from the Covert skins. Almost 80% of openings give you a Mil-Spec skin worth about €0.51.

The value uses buy prices. If you sell what you unbox you get less: Steam keeps 15% of the price and the money stays in your Steam Wallet. If you want a particular skin, buy it directly; it is almost always cheaper than trying to unbox it.

Opening cases is gambling. Only open them for fun, and only with money you can afford to lose. Guide: are CS2 cases worth opening?

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of a knife from the Shadow Case?

0.26%, or one in 385 cases on average. Every opening is independent: there is no counter that raises your odds after many openings. At today's prices, 385 openings cost about €1,319.

Which knives or gloves are in the Shadow Case?

Shadow Daggers, across 13 finishes. Every finish is equally likely.

Is the Shadow Case worth opening?

Financially, no: one opening costs €3.43 and returns €1.75 on average, so you lose about €1.68 each time. If you want a particular skin, buying it directly is almost always cheaper.

What are the StatTrak™ odds?

Any weapon skin or knife from the case has a 10% chance to be StatTrak™. Gloves have no StatTrak™ version.